Hello and welcome back to the ADPS Championship Preview live from the Homestead Miami Speedway! Today we have 2 previews for you in a double feature, so let's talk about Nate Wines.
Starts (after Homestead) : 29
Points (after 28 races) : 688
Points interval : -21
Wins : 1
Top 5s : 9
Top 10s : 13
Poles : 1
Nate Wines, like Evan Taddy, will have a perfect attendance record as one of the few drivers to appear in all 29 races. With an impressive resume in the first season. The 21 team has had an up and down season where they had to overcome all kinds of issues but they managed to come out of it with a shot at the 2021-2022 ADPS Championship.
After scoring the win at the Pheonix Raceway all the way back in 2021, Nate Wines would rack up 11 more top 10 finishes and 8 more top 5 finishes, and that includes his 2nd place finish at Martinsville to put the 21 team in the championship battle.
Nate Wines also has a lot of pressure on him, considering the 21 is legendary number in stock car racing and was driven by only one of the greatest of all time stock car racers in David Pearson. And that pressure has gotten to the team very frequently.
Championship clinching scenarios :
Wins the race
- Dietz must finish 2nd or lower without bonus points
- Taddy must finish 2nd or lower
- Mooch is non factor
Wines finds himself in situation where he can win the title with a race win, and it won't even matter how other 3 drivers he's going up against do in the race, he straight up wins the show.
He can edge out Dietz by 1 point if Lindsey finishes 2nd without any bonus points (that is largely in part thanks the 2 bonus points for leading at least 1 lap), but if Dietz has at least 2 bonus points? That becomes 3rd or lower for Wines to win the title with a race win and that only goes lower the more bonus points Dietz collects if she gets any.
Taddy is a completely different story as Wines comes into Homestead 4 points behind Evan Taddy. If Evan finishes 2nd and Wines wins the race, it varies from situation to situation
*No bonus points for Taddy
- Wines wins race, scores 102 points
- Taddy finishes 2nd, scores 80 points
Wines has a 22 point swing that goes in his favor and he wins by 18.
*2 bonus points for Taddy
- Wines wins race and scores 102 points
- Taddy finishes 2nd, but has 2 bonus points for 82
Wines has a 20 point advantage over Taddy in the race, Wines wins by 16.
The lowest points swing that Wines could get in this scenario is Evan wins pole, leads a lap, leads the most laps, and finishes 2nd for 88 points. That is a 14 point advantage for Nate Wines and the 21 *still* would win by 10 points.
Wines can absolutely run the show whare he sweeps out the bonus points and win the race and nobody can even touch him. It'd be a maximum 28 point swing assuming Taddy or Dietz finishes 2nd with 0 bonus points.
It is also worth mentioning that if Wines wins and maxes out the bonus points and Dietz leads 1 lap and finishes 2nd, Nate Wines would have a 26 point swing on Dietz and he wins the title by 5. But Wines would *have* to max out the points and win for that to happen.
There are other scenarios where Wines wins the title so long as he doesn't wreck out or have an issue during the race, but those rely on things beyond his control.
X-Factors
Evan Taddy
Evan Taddy is a big X-Factor for Wines as Nate comes in only 4 points behind the 25 car. If Taddy finishes 2nd with 0 bonus points and Wines wins the race? Wines wins on a 22 point swing and claims the title by 18 points
And at minimum, Wines could win the title by 10 over Taddy if Wines wins and the 25 team finishes 2nd with the maximum scorable bonus points at 8.
Here's the problem with that : Taddy is a resilient warrior. For every time he's been knocked down to the dirt, the 25 team would rise like a legend over all rivals and in media interviews, Taddy has said he is the champion destined for the title.
Making matters worse for Nate Wines, Taddy is not only the fan favorite, but he is also the odds on favorite to win the title. And Lindsey Dietz is a close 2nd fan favorite and the 2nd odds on favorite. What does that mean to the 21? Nothing, just thought I'd give him a warning.
And it doesn't stop there. If somehow, Wines and Taddy tie for the points lead and Dietz is a non factor, Taddy has tie breaker in 2 of the 5 categories we brought up when talking about Evan.
Wins - Taddy 1 : Wines 1
Top 5s - Taddy 9 : Wines 9
Top 10s - Taddy 14 : Wines 13
Poles - Taddy 3 : Wines 1
And Evan, being more consistent than Nate (we'll talk about Nate's consistency woes soon) would for sure have the better average finish than Wines and that's even without our stats team *having* the average finishes tallied up.
Mechanical issues/Wrecking
This is yet another huge X-Factor for Nate Wines where he has had an issue : wrecking and mechanical issues. In the 28 races Wines has raced so far, yes, he has scored 13 top 10 finishes and 9 top 5 finishes, that includes his Pheonix win. But also in those 28 races, a staggering 8 of them have been finishes outside the top 20. And even more alarming about that is the 21 team has 2 races where they were on the grid, but they did not see the green flag and were issued a 35th place finish for mechanical issues before the race started and if that's not alarming enough, there was a 3 race stretch where he finished no better than 27th, this strach includes and actually begins with his first DNS from IRP.
Wines has been spun out by Jager at Dover, had a blown engine at COTA, mechanical issues at IRP and Milwaukee where he did not start the race, a blown engine on lap 3 at Bristol, and was a nonfactor all race long at Pikes Peak to finish 30th. If Wines suffers yet another mechanical issue, parts failure, wreck, or a DNS? He'll be the one who's 4th in points. Maybe even lower depending on how the race goes.
Inconsistency
On top of mechanical issues and wrecking, Wines has a bad habit of being very streaky. He'll score 2 top 10s, and then falls out of the top 15 in a race before he scores 2 more top 10s and then it's back to the basement before he climbs out only to fall down again. It can be very frustrating if you're a fan of the 21 team. While yes, some of the inconsistency can be explained by wrecks, mechanical and parts failures, it cannot explain all the inconsistencies away like Pikes Peak, where Nate struggled all day, was a non factor, and finished 2 laps down in 30th. What might explain another part of the inconsistency Wines displays is the next X-Factor.
lack of aggression
Aggression is not a word in Nate Wines vocabulary. Sure he has some moments where he will be agressive (see Nate Wines wrecking Alan Mooch at Pheonix enroute to Wines getting the win), but more often than not, Wines won't make the the three wide moves that you see drivers normally make. Wines would rather straight up race you and beat you on strategy as opposed to wrecking you. But just because he won't wreck you 9 times out of 10 doesn't nessaccarialy mean you are safe. It just means you still could be in that one time Wines wrecks a competitor and you're either A) in the wrong place, wrong time or B) you *are* the intended target. Wines has a respect for his competition. Even though he talks a big game like he's Dale Earnhardt, he has a focus like Mark Martin. Retaliation only comes from Wines if he feels like you deserved the retaliation.
Where Taddy, Wines, and Deitz finish
Wines is in a dire Championship situation where yes, he can beat Dietz and Taddy if he wins regardless of bonus points and that makes bonus points not too big of a factor for the 21.
What *is*, however, a factor is where Wines, Dietz, and Taddy finish on the leader baord after lap 107. If Wines finishes 2nd, Taddy needs to finish 3rd (without bonus points) or lower (with or without bonus points) considering it's 80 points to to 75 points and Wines would win by 1 point and that's before bonus would be added. Any bonus points for the 25 and they finish 3rd? Taddy takes it. But Dietz is a different story. Lindsey, having a 21 point gap over Wines, has to finish 6th or lower for Wines to beat her without bonus points, and 7th or lower if she has at least 2 bonus points, and that's only *if* Wines finishes 2nd and that's not taking Evan Taddy into .
If Wines manages to wreck out, his title bid is over.
Keep an eye on where Wines, Dietz, and Taddy run all throught out the race.
In conclusion, Wines, while not a heavy weight favorite among fans and Vegas odds maker, he's not the underdog like the media makes him out to be. While inconsistent, the 21 team *has* finished in the top 10 an outstanding 13 times and has 9 top 5s to boot. He'll be a formidable foe to Taddy and Dietz. The final contender we talk about? He is the true definition of the underdog, we're going to talk about Alan Mooch. And we'll talk about the 9 team either tonight or tomorrow. Knowing us? Probably tomorrow.
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