It's almost go time for the Craftsman Late Model Series at Ocala and on Saturday or Sunday night, the ADPS will rock and roll, but before the green flag flies, we have to talk about the final ADPS championship contender - Colorado's favorite driver, Alan Mooch.
Starts (after Homestead) : 29
Points (after 28 races : 652
Points interval : -52
Wins : 1
Top 5s : 7
Top 10s : 10
Poles : 1
If you were to ask Alan Mooch about his expectations going into the season, and the media sure did, he would've said he expected to be a driver in the back half of the top 20 and at least start in all 29 races in the process. Nothing that would dazzle anyone, but it'd be a start for the team as they built upwards. But then something happened. More like a lot happened. Alan found himself at front the field often and competing to for top 10s and 5s on a race by race basis and his rivals kept tripping over themselves. Topping off the already impressive fight this 9 team has, Alan found himself in a very unfamiliar spot : challenging Nate Wines for the points lead and scoring his first ever ADPS win at Pocono to claim the points lead. Every other week, it seemed as Mooch and Wines would swap the lead in points and it lead fans and media alike to beleive it'd be the 21 and 9 at Homestead in a 2 man showdown.
But of course, it was not meant to be a 2 driver showdown, but a 4 driver showdown. Thanks everything playing out, nearly a full season of racing, a points format that rewards a full season of work, and the 9 scoring a 12th place finish in Martinsville, Alan finds himself only 52 points behind Lindsey Dietz and also being ed by Evan Taddy and Nate Wines for the title.
Championship Clinching Scenarios :
If Alan Wins
- Lindsey Dietz must finish 8th (without bonus points) or lower (with bonus points)
- Evan Taddy must finish 6th (without bonus points) or lower (with bonus points)
- Nate Wines must finish 4th (without bonus points) or lower (with bonus points)
If you want the epidimy of "you're screwed if nothing goes your way even you pull off an upset win in the race," look no further than Alan Mooch's clinch scenarios if he wins the race.
Unlike the other 3 where they can easily win the race and win the title no matter what happens behind them because they're all relatively close to each other, Alan does not have that luxury as he sits 52 points behind the points leader Lindsey Dietz, the widest gap of anyone.
For Alan to win the title if he wins the race, Dietz *MUST* finish outside the top 5, specifically in 8th without any bonus points, 9th if she has at least 2 bonus points, and it goes down if Dietz has more bonus points in her back pocket.
And it doesn't get any easier for Mooch and the 9 crew. He sits 40 points behind the 25 team. If Alan wants to win the title, Taddy has to finish in 7th without any bonus points (60 total to the 102 minimum Alan would get) and if the 25 has at least 2 bonus points, Taddy can finish 6th and win by 2 points. If Taddy has 2 bonus points, so Alan would need Taddy to finish 8th or lower, 9th or lower if Taddy has 4 bonus points and down the line it goes. If Evan finishes 5th with 0 bonus points, that's 60 points and that results in... A tie?! Well then! (We'll discuss that in the X-Factors section)
And then there's Nate Wines. Alan's 9 crew is only 36 points behind the 21 team and this is a much more managable situation for them, but also leads into the X-Factor we will talk about when we get there and a rather interesting tie scenario if Wines finishes 3rd with 6 bonuss points. For now, what you need to know is Alan needs Nate Wines to finish 4th (64 points to the minimum 102 Mooch would get) for a 38 points swing in favor of the 9 team to win it all by 2 points. If Wines has 2 bonus points, it's 5th or lower. If Wines has 4 bonus points, 6th or lower. It drops 7th or lower if Wines has the maximum 8 bonus points.
If Alan Wins (max points allowed)
Let's give Alan the best possible case scenario : if he wins, scores pole, leads a lap and most laps, he scores 108 points. Can he afford his rivals to finish closer to him? Let's find out.
Dietz - must finish 7th (with no bonus points) or lower (with 2 bonus points)
Taddy - Must finish 5th (without bonus points) or lower (with 2 bonus points)
Wines - must finish 4th (without bonus points) or lower (with 2 bonus points)
That answer is "yes, but not by much." Since Alan would have the most bonus points locked up, the best all 3 rivals can do is get 2 bonus points for simply leading a lap. With Dietz, Alan can't afford the 6 to be anywhere from 2nd to 6th as Dietz would win the title and would need her to finish 7th or lower. Taddy is more managable and can't finish any higher than 5th if Alan maxes out the points and Taddy scores no bonus points , and Wines can't finish 3rd or 2nd if Alan maxes out the points and Wines gets none.
If Alan doesn't win? Depending where he finishes, he'll need to to throw some hail marys because he would need Dietz to finish a staggering 6 or more spots behind, Taddy has to be 4 or more spots behind, and Wines has to be 3 or more spots behind.
In the off chance, and this is going to be *very unlikely scenario*, that the other 3 wreck out and no bonus points are grabbed, Alan will have to focus on finishing 6th or better to claim the title. And that's *before* bonus points are added to the title picture.
And this is part why he's the long shot underdog, but there is *way more* than just his long shot title clinch scenarios, so let's look at the X-Factors for the 9.
X-Factors
Bonus Points
If you couldn't tell by the already steep hill Alan has to climb to claim the title, one of the main X-factors is the bonus points. If Alan scores at least 2, He'll have some breathing room, but not a lot of it. And if the others score bonus points? He's already fighting a losing battle based on how they finish in the race.
The main trio
Speaking of Dietz, Taddy, and Wines, they, compared to Alan, are the heavy favorites to win it all. Dietz leads by 17 over Taddy, and Taddy has a 4 point gap over Nate Wines. That's a tight-knit group among Championship 4. Where's Alan? A whopping 52 points behind Dietz, 40 points behind Taddy, and 36 behind Nate Wines. If they all keep Alan in the rear view? The 9 team won't be a factor for the title at all. How did Alan get to this point? Well, let's look at all of his biggest X-factors and you'll see where he lost that ground.
Intermediate Struggles
It's no secret that Alan Mooch is a short track racer by the books, but being good on short tracks, it has resulted not doing well on one of the most important factors : the intermediates. Alan's best finish across all the intermediates is a 10th at Las Vegas. That was race 3 all the other intermediate races were below 15th place finishes with Darlington being the outlier where Alan finished 11th. Yes, he *did* lead 1 lap at Kansas, but then he fell to 16th because he couldn't keep the pace up.
Alan has said he spent the entire month working on his intermediate racing, but it might be too little too late. The struggles he had prior to Homestead might be too much to overcome.
But that's not the *only* thing that has costed the 9 team. Far from it.
Hallacious Hits
We teased this over in Lindsey's preview, so let's talk about something Alan has taken a lot of this season : a beating. And I mean he took some vicious licks this year.
And the hits started coming at Pheonix Raceway, where the 9 was leading and it was looking like Mooch had the car to beat, 9 team anticipating an early season celebration... And then Nate Wines spins out Mooch and the 9 team finishes 20th, it was a solo spin for the 9 and it wasn't too bad, but hindsight is 20/20 and that spin was a foreshadow of what was waiting for the 9 team. This was followed by a DNF at the highly anticipated NASCAR Amino Motordrome where he got wrecked by Quinn Jager and it ended his race. The 9 was relegated to a 30th place finish. And then a wild ride at Indy Race Park where he went flipping and finished 32nd, a costly 32nd as it kept Wines within 1 point of Alan. And then Mooch got flipped *again* at Milwuakee resulting in a 29th place finish. So in both races where Wines did not start, Alan Mooch got flipped. Oh, don't worry, he *did* take some hits at Martinsville. He was just able to recover and finish 12th because god dammit, he's a short track racer.
And then Nashville and Richmond, oh to say those races were disaster for the 9 team would be a huge understatement as he only finished 30th (Richmond) and 24th (Nashville). For a short track racer like Alan to struggle at those tracks, you can now see where he lost all that ground. Between his wrecks and the short track disasters of Nashville and Richmond paired with all the hits he has taken? Being 52 back is no longer a shock.
Late race es
Alan is no stranger to last lap es, specifically *getting* ed in the late stages of the race.
Yes, Alan won at Pocono, putting on the drive of his life to hold off Trevor Dore, but he had not one, but *TWO* wins stolen away from on a last lap and could've had a 3rd win at New Hampshire for a total of 4 wins.
Let's start with New Hampshire. Alan Mooch was leading the race late, seems like he has the win on lock. And then he gets just a little bit loose, washes up, leaves the inside open for Lindsey Dietz, who was under her allias of Dustin Dietz at the time, dived to the inside of turn 1 and stole the lead away from Alan Mooch on lap 71, taking her first win the season as hauled ass and wiped the floor with everyone. Moochh finished 2nd.
Now... let's talk about those last lap es.
The first of these 2 last lap es happened at Road America. Alan had the lead going into the final lap and only needed to hold it 14 turns. Going down a long section of the track, Alan gets ed by Carter Jones and the 9 team finishes 2nd as Jones runs away, Alan charges back and mounts puts up a really good fight, but it wasn't enough. Carter Jones wins.
The 2nd last lap ? Christmas night 2021 in
Knoxville. Alan Mooch is being chased hard by the 88 of James Omocke. The 9 team just look like they have this race on lock. Alan is able to hold the lead through turns 1, 2, and 3. The 9 and get off 4, Omocke has the run and... the 88 team win their 2nd race of the season, Mooch finishes 2nd. *again*
Tie breakers if Alan Wins
And Alan is probably wishing he had won at 1, if not all 3, of those races where he finished 2nd, because if he does, Alan would have curb with a series leading 4 wins. And that would be a massive game changer.
But since he doesn't have 4 wins and he only has Pocono to his credit, tie breakers become yet another massive X-factor for Alan and his 9 team. Let's look at the tie breaker scenarios starting with Dietz and then look at Taddy and then we'll look at Wines.
We know Lindsey Dietz is 52 points ahead of Alan. So without bonus points, let's give Alan and Dietz a tie in the standings.
Alan wins the race (102 points) and Dietz finishes 7th with no bonus (52 points). They have tied it all up. 6 VS 9, here we go :
Wins : Dietz 3 - Mooch 2
Top 5s : Dietz 9 - Mooch 8
Top 10s : Dietz 14 - Mooch 11
Poles : Dietz 0 - Mooch 1
In this hyoptetcical scenario, Dietz mops the floor with Alan and she wins in *THREE* of the categories and Alan only has the 1 pole to his name. It won't do. Even then, it wouldn't even get to the 2nd tie breaker as Lindsey would have 3 wins to the 2 Alan has. And if Deitz leads a lap OR scores pole and finishes 8th, she *still* wins on tie breaker with the 3 wins to 2. That win in New Hampshire Dietz has and Alan does not have makes all the difference.
Okay, how about Evan Taddy? We know Alan has 40 points to make up on Evan. Hypothetical scenario : Alan wins (102 points) Taddy finishes 5th with 0 bonus points (60 points) and Dietz and Wines are a non factor all through out the race. Mooch and Taddy are tied up, let's break it.
Wins : Mooch 2 - Taddy 1
Top 5s : Taddy 10 - Mooch 8
Top 10s : Taddy 14 - Mooch 11
Poles : Taddy 3 - Mooch 1
Wait, WHAT?! Mooch *ACTUALLY* wins the title in this scenario?! Believe it or not, he does win the title if he wins the race, *but that's only if* Evan does not take the pole and/or lead a lap. While Evan has Alan beat in the other 3 categories, the 9 team edges out the 25 where it matters most : the wins column. If Taddy has a lap led? 5th will be enough to edge Alan out by 2. Only a 6th will tie it up again if Alan wins the race. If Taddy does win pole and lead a lap, Alan's win will mean nothing unless Taddy finishes in 6th (56 ponts + 4 = 60). And it would need to be 7th If Evan gets the max 8 bonus points (52 + 8 = 60).
But that's not the *only* tie breaker scenario Alan gets if he wins. If Nate Wines wins the pole *or* leads a lap and leads the most laps and finishes 3rd, he scores 76 points to Alan's 102. That's a 36 point swing and we're all tied up between the 9 and 21. The midseason rivalry is revived for one last time. Tie breakers? Here we go :
Wins : Mooch 2 - Wines 1
Top 5s : Wines 10 - Mooch 8
Top 10s : Wines 13 - Mooch 11
Poles : Tied (1 each)
While Nate Wines would have 2 of the 3 categories and they're tied with 1 poles each, the tie breaker won't get to the 2nd category because, you guessed it, Alan's win at Homestead the race *clinches* the title for him on wins again, 2 wins to the 1 Wines has. Wines not being able to catch and Ryan Smith at Martinsville comes back to haunt him.
Hypothetically, it's winner take all, but if none of them win, it's going to be best driver takes it and that is the biggest question : if none of the championship 4 win the race, who will do the best job of getting what they need to win the title done?
Leaving Ford for Chevrolet
CyberStorm Racing, the team Alan owns and drives for, was on a 1 year deal with Ford, and he was working to get a new deal done for next season and beyond. At the midway point of the season, Ford and Alan decided it was best split off. But they're leaving on very good and there's always the possibility that Alan and his team will be able to return to the blue ovals.
A month after the announcement, Alan Mooch announced his team would be moving over to Chevrolet. A move that paid off almost immediately as the team was successful in g up and coming rookie racer Don Faulconer. And Don brought sponsorship from Twitch with him, so it was yet another win.
We're seeing the switch over to Chevrolet begin in the CLMS and then the ADPS team will have the bow tie starting in October.
It does leave the question that even though Alan and Ford split on good , is Ford going to assure CyberStorm's owner gets the best equipment possible to race for the title or is Ford going to focus on the Wines Racing 6 and 21 cars over the 9 car?
In conclusion : Alan Mooch and the 9 crew, despite having the fewest top 5s and 10s of everyone in the championship 4, despite taking hits all season that have costed him solid finishes, despite having a shot a 4 wins and only walking away with 1, AND despite heavily struggling on the intermediate tracks, find themselves only 52 points back of the ADPS title. Vegas odds makers scoff at him, fans overlook him and look at the other 3, media outside of the *entire* state of Colorado have all written this CyberStorm Racing 9 team off as a non factor. They are the EXACT deffinition of an underdog.
This team should not be overlooked. They STILL managed to lead the points. They STILL waged a war with Nate Wines and the 21 team for the points lead that spanned weeks over the middle of the season, they couldn't lose each other. They STILL scratched and clawed their way into a situation where they could have a chance win the title. And that's all an underdog needs : a chance.
Think back to Daytona in February of 2021. Alan Mooch said he expected his 9 team to be a back half of the top 20 team. Nothing that would dazzle fans, not expecting any wins, not even expecting to fight for the title. He didn't expect the 23 and 95 to do great either. But all 3 of them had the spotlight on them in a good way in one form or another. Faith McKenzie scored a 2nd place at Phoenix and had some epic wreck avoidance moments, the 95 was decent in races it was able to run, and Alan and 9 team carried the whole squad on their backs and got the win at Pocono. And look where that team is now. Alan Mooch, the owner/driver, is on the brink of bringing Colorado another championship, adding on to the Mile High State's rich history of championship winning teams.
I'm Allan Gaunson, CEO, chairman, and lead analyst of the ARCA Dr. Pepper Series, g out and saying we will see YOU this weekend for the ADPS Championship Race 300! And don't forget to tune into the CLMS kick off race!
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