Ingenuity in disguise

Hopkins traded to the Cardinals!

“Even by Bill O'Brien's standards, the Cardinals and Texans made a stunning trade on Monday afternoon. Houston traded away arguably its second-most valuable player, star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, netting oft-injured running back David Johnson and a second-round pick in the process” - ESPN

It seemed the Texans had doomed themselves. Almost immediately after trading their superstar wide receiver, the sports world erupted. Everyone was immediately calling out the Texans and claiming their season a loss before it had even begun. There was even talk of firing head coach and GM, Bill O’Brien, as well as trading star quarterback, Deshaun Watson.

Overreaction? Maybe. The Texans had just traded one of the NFL’s best players while in his prime, and for an aging running back who hasn’t seen star headlines in 4 years. Johnson hasn’t ran for 1000 yards since 2016, and has only played a full season all but 2 times in his 5 year career. Were we wrong to assume?

As a matter of fact, none of us can truly say whether this trade will cause the Texans to fail or the Cardinals to succeed. I would like to put to voice a thought that has been overlooked by many.

Deshaun Watson will improve, and the Texans offense will not falter

The narrative that a good QB needs great receivers is absolutely false. If the Texans are to come out as winners of this trade, the offense must succeed and at least improve slightly, and only slightly, over what they have been the past 3 years with Watson at the helm. If he truly is to be the star we plan on him being, this should be no tough feat.

The Texans have improved in yards per play in each of Watsons 3 seasons starting. Will that take a hit with the departure of Hopkins? I have looked to one situation many times when considering this. Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions.

In 2015, Calvin Johnson’s final season with the Lions, the Lions averaged 5.4 yards per play while ranking 15th in ing in of DVOA. After Calvin Johnson’s sudden retirement, they immediately improved to 5.5 yards per play and 13th in ing in of DVOA. They also made the playoffs for the 3rd time since 2000.

That year, Matthew Stafford’s rate based on statistics did not drop dramatically. His yards per game increased by 4, his interception rate dropped from 2.2% to 1.7%, and his QBR went from 58.5 to a career best 66.5.

The following year the Lions improved again, as their offense shot up to the 7th best in of scoring, ranking higher than it had since 2011 (Stafford’s first full season as a starter in which he had 5000 yards and 41 TD’s). They seemed to be better without their superstar wide receiver.

During the first 7 seasons of Stafford’s career, Calvin Johnson was the 2nd most targeted receiver in the NFL. In the final 4 seasons of Johnsons career he was targeted an NFL leading 10.8 times per game. In this time, the Lions won 0 playoff games and over the second stretch, in which Calvin earned 4 Pro Bowls and 2 All Pros, 17 teams averaged more points per game than the Lions.

With Johnson being targeted 10.8 times per game, Golden Tate was only targeted 8.5 times per game while on the Lions. In 2016-2017 after Calvin, no player averaged 8 targets per game on the Lions, yet the offense was improving. The answer was simple, the Lions were doing a better job spreading the ball around. It may be worth noting that 2.2% of his es to Tate, Jones, Burleson, and Golladay were intercepted, that rate was higher at 3.4% with Calvin Johnson. His er rating targeting “Megatron” was 93.1. Since 2016 and the absence of Calvin, Stafford has a 95.9 er rating.

"I think it was good Calvin retired because it allowed Stafford to learn and grow. Obviously, with Calvin—hell, if I was a quarterback, I would just lob it to him every single time too. But I think having Calvin retire, it allowed him to really go through every single read like he was doing in college." - Charles Tillman 2017.

Former cornerback

But what about Houston?

Since Watson was drafted in 2017, Hopkins has been the NFL’s most targeted receiver. The Texans also have yet to rank top 10 in scoring or yards. According to James Palmer of NFL.com the plan is to “spread the wealth.” Reminiscence of the Lions?

The Texans may have lost the best receiver in football. However they have added insane depth to their receiving corps. Brandin Cooks, acquired in a trade with the LA Rams, and Randall Cobb s the team via free agency. Will Fuller V is returning from a core injury after gathering 670 yards in only 11 games last season, and Kenny Stills who caught 70% of es thrown his way by Watson returns as well with the young hopeful Keke Coutee showing bright moments in his albeit inconsistent career. The addition of David Johnson via trade of Hopkins, adds depth to the running backs and he has good abilities in the game, as well as returning Duke Johnson who is arguably one of the better receiving backs in the league. While they don’t have a star TE, they do have considerable depth at the position.

While its easy to see the possibility of a very strong ing attack, we shouldn’t over look just how important the run game is. In 2016 David Johnson was in just his second year and took the NFL by storm. While he was a great threat in the air, he also ran for 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns! He averaged only 4.2 yards per carry but behind an offensive line that was at best mediocre. He showed all the tools necessary of being one of the NFL’s top backs. He has the power to go in on the goal line and get those tough short yards and touchdowns, he’s got the speed to take it the distance and outrun defenders, as well as the athleticism and agility to scoot and dance around them. Also as mentioned before he is a threat in the . He has great hands and caught 80 catches in 2016 for 879 yards and 4 touchdowns. Essentially he was the second best receiver on the team.

Johnson’s skill set fits perfectly into what the Texans are trying to run on offense and he would easily fit, and improve, that role. He can perform just fine while lined up next to the quarterback in the shotgun, take a handoff or run out for a . Johnson doesn’t have to replicate his 2016 campaign, he just has perform at a level that can keep the defense guessing and on their toes at all times. With this deadly looking attack its only right to assume his job would be slightly easier, especially if he is a threat through the air (spoiler, he is). The big question here is his health. Johnson has only played 16 games twice in his 5 year career.

The Texans are loaded with weapons in the ing game. Although 1.8% of es to Hopkins were intercepted and Watsons er rating was 109.5 when targeting Hopkins, which definitely does not look bad in any means, the overall game plan to spread the ball around should bode well for the Texans offense vs other defenses. Instead of relying on one superstar guy, they have brought in a plethora of proven and capable weapons for their young star quarterbacks disposal.

While targeting Hopkins 150 times in 2019, 69.3% of balls were caught with 11.2 yards per reception. While targeting Still 55 times in 2019, 72.7% of balls were caught with 14 yards per reception. While targeting Fuller 71 times in 2019, 69% of balls were caught with 13.7 yards per reception. The production is there, albeit limited by quantity.

One could say the other 2 receivers benefited from Hopkins presence on the field. I would argue that while that may be true, Hopkins has not been replaced by one middling running back or a simple proven receiver, but he has been replaced by 3 quality and capable veterans. Each of these names mentioned (Cobb, Cooks, Fuller, Stills, Johnson and Johnson) have the ability to take a ball to the house. The double teams on Hopkins may stop, but Stills and Fuller should still see single coverage as Cobb and Cooks enter the lineup.

Watsons touchdown total in his 3 years goes like this: 19, 26, 26. Perhaps with defenses not honing in on the great DeAndre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson being forced to survey his many quality options these Texans rise and finally break through the top 10 offense barrier which they have been unable to do so far. Or maybe they go the route of Culpepper after losing Randy Moss on the Vikings, ultimately dooming their offense.

The texans have many questions heading into their future. While the natural consensus would be to look down on a team losing one of the best players in the league, there is always the possibility the guys getting paid millions of dollars in the front office actually know what they’re doing. I believe we are about to see a Deshaun Watson year for the record books. If he truly is the star we claim him to be, and with these weapons around him, it may just be that

The best is yet to come.

#Storm