Zack Predicts- The Top 30 in NCS Points!

This is something I did in 2020, so we're gonna come back to this concept. I think it'll be super interesting.

I think the 2022 season is going to be one of the most intriguing seasons coming in that we'll ever have. The spec car concept has created a scenario where I believe that 32 teams have a legitimate shot at making the Playoffs. Nonetheless, only 16 teams make it, so who do I think they will be?

30. Ty Dillon (Petty-GMS Motorsports)

2021 Stats: 11 starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 3 top tens (Xfinity)

Interesting Stat: Ty Dillon has 3 career stage wins in the Cup Series

2022 Predictions: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 1 top ten

I'm not expecting much from Ty Dillon, or Petty-GMS as a whole actually. They have potential to be a good team, but in this first season, I expect to see a pretty weak effort, especially from the lackluster Dillon. He'll probably be randomly good at a track midseason and do nothing else.

Bold Prediction: Ty Dillon will win a stage this season

29. Cole Custer (Stewart-Haas Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 2 top tens

Interesting Stat: Custer led more laps in 2021 (9) than in his winning 2020 season (5)

2022 Predictions: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 2 top tens

This may be super harsh, but even by his team's downturned standards, Custer underperformed the equipment. His teammates finished 5th, 15th, and 23rd in points, but Custer was a dismal 26th, barely ahead of Corey LaJoie. He's consistently been the worst driver at SHR since ing the team, and I fear it only gets worse for him from here. He's just not consistently good at any track type.

Bold Prediction: Custer's top five will be a runner-up at Talladega.

28. Michael McDowell (Front Row Motorsports)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 1 win, 2 top fives, 5 top tens, Round of 16

Interesting Stat: McDowell has a 19.6 average finish at Road Courses since 2019

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 4 top tens

McDowell's Daytona 500 win will always be ed, but lets not romanticize his season too much- after 14 races, he had 5 top tens in 2021. That number never changed again. I predict 2022 to be a fall back to the Earth for McDowell, but he'll probably still have a few moments of brilliance along the way.

Bold Prediction: McDowell's top five will come not at a superspeedway, but at a rainy Watkins Glen.

27. Erik Jones (Petty-GMS Motorsports)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 6 top tens

Interesting Stat: Erik Jones led his most career laps in a season in his rookie season with Furniture Row Racing (310)

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts,0 wins, 0 top fives, 5 top tens

Jones will be the flagship driver in the Petty-GMS stable, but even he will be hurt by the growing pains of GMS trying to figure out Cup racing. Out of the two drivers they have, their best chance to do anything in the future is with Jones, who posted a solid sub-20 average finish in RPM's last season as an independent team.

Bold Prediction: Erik Jones will win the Busch Clash at the Coliseum

26. Justin Haley (Kaulig Racing)

2021 Stats: 32 Starts, 1 win, 9 top fives, 24 top tens, Round of 8 (Xfinity)

Interesting Stat: Above the Truck level, all of Justin Haley's national series wins have come at superspeedways.

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 3 top fives, 4 top tens

Kaulig Racing is getting a lot of hype for this season, and its understandable after AJ Allmendinger's big win at Indianapolis, but here's the reason I've ranked Haley this low- Trent Owens. Owens, who will be Haley's crew chief in 2022, posted points finishes of 26th, 29th, and 27th in a JTG Daugherty car that once battled for the top twenty in points and made the playoffs. Owens is the guy who caused the jet dryer meme. Yikes.

Bold Prediction: Haley's top tens will all come at superspeedways.

25. Aric Almirola (Stewart-Haas Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 1 win, 2 top fives, 5 top tens, Round of 16

Interesting Stat: Almirola has not failed to qualify for the Playoffs since ing SHR

2022 Predictions: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 2 top fives, 5 top tens

Almirola may surprise me, but farewell tours are- for whatever reason- usually not up to the normal standards of a driver's caliber. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Jr, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne, and more all had downturns in their final year, and I honestly don't see why Almirola won't be the same.

Bold Prediction: His final top ten will be a runner-up at Loudon.

24. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr (JTG Daugherty Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 2 top tens

Interesting Stat: Stenhouse has 5 career top fives in 18 starts at Bristol

2022 Predictions: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 3 top fives, 5 top tens

Ricky Stenhouse is a guy that's really intriguing going into 2022. A downsized JTG Daugherty Racing might be able to provide him with the cars he needs to compete more regularly, and with a high throttle control package now dominant at all tracks, Stenhouse's aggressive nature might carry him to a few more good finishes. But his all-or-nothing mentality is and will remain his downfall, and what will likely prevent him from attaining a playoff spot.

Bold Prediction: Stenhouse will suffer 6 DNFs in 2022

23. Daniel Suarez (Trackhouse)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 4 top tens

Interesting Stat: 78% of Suarez's laps led in 2021 came at the Bristol Dirt Race

2022 Predictions: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 3 top fives, 7 top tens

Suarez had so many good runs that his statline really is surprising. Trackhouse clearly lacks an ability to close races, and that road course program needs a ton of work, but I think that the Suarez/Chastain duo can make some noise in future seasons.

Bold Prediction: Suarez will win a stage at Circuit of the Americas

22. Chris Buescher (RFK Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 8 top tens

Interesting Stat: Buescher led nearly as many laps at Homestead in 2021 than he had in his entire career up to that point

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 3 top fives, 8 top tens

Buescher turned a lot of heads in 2021 at Homestead when he won Stage 1, but people forget that he posted a career-high in average finish as well. With Brad Keselowski as his teammate, I feel like Buescher has a chance to get better in 2022. However, he's a strange one to evaluate, because there's little he does that screams of the talent that defeated Chase Elliott in a title bout.

Bold Prediction: Buescher wins another stage at Sonoma

21. Harrison Burton (Wood Brothers Racing)

2021 Stats: 33 Starts, 0 wins, 10 top fives, 22 top tens, Round of 8 (Xfinity)

Interesting Stat: Burton made his Cup debut at Talladega in 2021, finishing 20th

2022 Predictions: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 5 top fives, 8 top tens

Now this one will catch some people off guard, but I think Harrison will either sur or at least equal what DiBenedetto did in this car in his rookie season. Harrison is a conservative driver, who dislikes crashing with a ion and takes care of his equipment. This style plays out in Cup because of the longer races, and it plays in the Next Gen due to the insane tire wear it is likely to see. Burton will surprise a lot of people in 2022.

Bold Prediction: Burton will finish the 2022 regular season within 30 points of the Playoffs

20. Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 8 top tens

Interesting Stat: Dillon finished inside the top 21 in all but 3 races in 2021

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 2 top fives, 4 top tens

This is where it gets really hard, but I just don't believe in Austin Dillon. We just saw his best career season, and it took freakish consistency that would've made 2020 Kevin Harvick impressed, consistency that has never occurred for Austin Dillon at any other point in his Cup career. I think he regresses to the mean in 2022.

Bold Prediction: Austin Dillon will lead 45 laps at Michigan

19. Austin Cindric (Team Penske)

2021 Stats: 33 Starts, 5 wins, 22 top fives, 26 top tens, Championship 4 (Xfinity)

Interesting Stat: Cindric led laps in 42% of his Cup starts in 2021

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 3 top fives, 11 top tens

Burton and Cindric right next to each other in points may surprise a lot of people, but I remind you of the Next Gen's tire falloff. That will play into the hands of Burton while possibly causing issues for a subset of aggressive drivers, and Cindric, like the rest of Team Penske, falls into this category. People expecting him to light the world on fire are bound to be disappointed.

Bold Prediction: Cindric leads the most laps at 2 different road course events

18. Ross Chastain (Trackhouse)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 3 top fives, 8 top tens

Interesting Stat: Chastain scored two top 3 finishes in 2021

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 3 top fives, 9 top tens

Chastain has looked like a force in Next Gen testing, but as I've said previously, there's a subset of drivers who will be hurt because their aggressive driving will be a detriment in the Next Gen, and Chastain is arguably the most aggressive driver the Cup Series has ever seen. I think Chastain will qualify great and be up front early in races and in wreckfests, but in races with long runs, he will fade quickly and horrifically. He can make the playoffs or even seriously compete for a title, but he'll have to calm down to make it happen.

17. Brad Keselowski (RFK Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 1 win, 10 top fives, 17 top tens, Round of 8

Interesting Stat: Keselowski is tied for second on the all-time wins list at Talladega with Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt, Jr

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 7 top fives, 12 top tens

Keselowski is an interesting case, because while he looks good in Next Gen testing, its hard to say that he'll necessarily be that good in race conditions. The drivers that succeeded the most in Gen 6 were hyperaggressive drivers, and that trait is likely to be detrimental to Next Gen success. Keselowski is a weird in between, but I think he's good enough to adjust his style towards the conservative side. It still won't be enough to overcome what is still Roush equipment.

Now here's where shit hits the fan for my predictions.

16. Corey LaJoie (Spire Motorsports)

2021 Stats: 35 Starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 1 top ten

Interesting Stat: LaJoie led 12 laps at Phoenix in 2021- his most in any single race

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 4 top fives, 8 top tens, Round of 16

LaJoie in the Playoffs would be a shocker, but this team has its head in the clouds right now. LaJoie believes that the team is capable of being contenders in 2022 and will drive like it. Spire Motorsports has been in a steady upward trajectory ever since their lightning strike win at Daytona, and their progress will culminate in a career year for LaJoie.

Bold Prediction: LaJoie will make the All Star Race

15. Chase Briscoe (Stewart-Haas Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 3 top tens

Interesting Stat: Briscoe won a record 9 races in the Xfinity Series in 2020

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 3 top fives, 11 top tens, Round of 16

I think Briscoe's career will take a similar path to William Byron's. He's too good to stay down forever, and even in a down year for SHR he had moments of brilliance. I don't think Briscoe is a win threat yet, but he'll start trending in that direction

14. Bubba Wallace (23XI Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 1 win, 3 top fives, 3 top tens

Interesting Stat: Wallace is the second African-American winner in NASCAR Cup history, and first driver to completely miss the playoffs and win a race since 2013

2022 Prediction, 36 Starts, 0 wins, 2 top fives, 10 top tens, Round of 16

Bubba's season took a turn when Mike Wheeler was removed from his spot atop Bubba's box, and Bootie Barker was a great pickup for the team. I don't think they'll start great, but with Kurt Busch as his teammate the 23XI flagship driver will make a big leap over 2021.

Bold Prediction: Wallace wins multiple stages at short tracks in 2022.

13. Christopher Bell (Joe Gibbs Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 1 win, 7 top fives, 16 top tens, Round of 12

Interesting Stat: Bell's win at the Daytona Road Course was his first road course win at any NASCAR level

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 6 top fives, 13 top tens, Round of 16

For a guy that goes toe to toe with Kyle Larson on dirt, Bell doesn't adjust to asphalt stock cars well, especially not Cup cars. I think that Bell is a guy who could win a title, but it won't be with Adam Stevens, who has established himself to only be good with a niche set of driving styles which Bell does not possess.

Bold Prediction: Bell scores 3 runner-up finishes in 2022

12. Tyler Reddick (Richard Childress Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 3 top fives, 16 top tens, Round of 16

Interesting Stat: In 7 national series starts at Homestead, Reddick has 2 wins and 6 top fives, and has never finished worse than 6th

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 1 win, 3 top fives, 14 top tens, Round of 12

Reddick, like Chastain, is feast-or-famine at everything he does, but he's been better thus far at harnessing it at the Cup level. However, most of that success came at tracks with the jettisoned 550 package. Reddick looked awful in Next Gen testing, consistently running time trial laps early and mixing it up with the leaders, before quickly falling off and getting blown past by multiple cars, and ultimately making . I think Reddick can figure it out in time to make the playoffs, but him missing would honestly not surprise me. He will be a menace on very short runs, though.

Bold Prediction: 10 of Reddick's top tens will come after race 20, including his win.

11. Joey Logano (Team Penske)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 1 win, 10 top fives, 19 top tens, Round of 8

Interesting Stat: Logano has not won on asphalt in over a year

2022 Predictions: 36 Starts, 2 wins, 8 top fives, 16 top tens, Round of 12

Logano is another aggressive driver I think will be hurt by the Next Gen. He's calmed down enough to where he'll at least be semi competent on a long run, but the races he'll win in this era are races with late restarts, or races on freshly repaved tracks where tire wear is minimal. Him and his Penske team are not well suited to long runs, and he may never win another title if he doesn't solve that weakness.

Bold Prediction: Logano will score Ford's first road course win since 2018.

10. Kurt Busch (23XI Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 1 win, 6 top fives, 14 top tens, Round of 16

Interesting Stat: Upon his first win at 23XI, Busch will become the first modern era driver to win for 4 different manufacturers

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 1 win, 7 top fives, 19 top tens, Round of 12

Kurt Busch is a unicorn, and he just makes everything he touches good. Denny Hamlin lauded on him being one of the fastest Toyota drivers in testing, and while I don't see him keeping this up during the season, I do think Kurt will be a force come playoff time.

Bold Prediction: Kurt will only miss the Round of 8 by a tiebreaker

9. Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 0 wins, 10 top fives, 24 top tens, Round of 12

Interesting Stat: Harvick has not scored fewer than 23 top tens since 2015

2022 Predictions: 36 Starts, 3 wins, 11 top fives, 18 top tens, Round of 12

Harvick has been miraculous in his late career dominance, but everyone falls eventually. Harvick will be entering his age 46 season, and while I've been predicting him to start declining for a while now, it just hasn't happened- even if one of his skills declines, he finds another one to enhance to offset it. I think the Next Gen, however, will be the starting point of his decline, as most of his success has come in the Gen 6 body type.

Bold Prediction: Harvick's winless streak exceeds 50 races before it is broken

8. Martin Truex, Jr (Joe Gibbs Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 4 wins, 13 top fives, 20 top tens, Championship 4

Interesting Stat: Truex has finished top two in points in 4 of the last 5 seasons

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 3 wins, 10 top fives, 21 top tens, Round of 8

You wouldn't think it based on his near-miss of the 2021 title, but Truex has actually been in a slow decline ever since 2017- his average finish has dwindled from 9.4 to 12.0, and his laps led has gone down every year since that year. I'm not anticipating a massive falloff from MTJ, but a slow continuation of the same would not surprise me. He's a Hall of Famer either way.

Bold Prediction: Truex will get one of his wins on a last-lap .

7. Ryan Blaney (Team Penske)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 3 wins, 11 top fives, 20 top tens, Round of 8

Interesting Stat: Only once has Blaney led more than 35 laps in a race he won

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 2 wins, 13 top fives, 20 top tens, Round of 8

The bad news for Blaney is that he will be losing his championship crew chief, Todd Gordon. The good news is that Blaney was a long run specialist in the Gen 6 era. As long as new crew chief Jonathan Hassler can harness that same prowess the way Gordon was able to, Blaney will be just fine. I wouldn't expect a breakout 6-win season or something like that, however- I don't think Ford's equipment is where it needs to be right now for Blaney to pull that off.

6. Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 2 wins, 14 top fives, 22 top tens, Round of 8

Interesting Stat: Busch's 334 laps led in 2021 were the fewest he's led in any full season

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 3 wins, 14 top fives, 21 top tens, Round of 8

Busch is another aggressive driver that should be hurt by the Next Gen, but he's also one of the smartest racers in the series, so I think he'll adapt fine. I'm not sure I would expect him to go out and win butt loads of races like he used to, however, but it's within the realm of possibility. Busch will be solid at worst, and all-world at best.

Bold prediction- One of Kyle Busch's wins will be in a photo finish.

5. Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 2 wins, 15 top fives, 21 top tens, Championship 4

Interesting Stat: Elliott has never scored fewer than 10 top fives in any full season

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 2 wins, 13 top fives, 23 top tens, Round of 8

Elliott being the lowest Hendrick car in points is just a reflection of how dominant I think this team will be. If he does miss the Final 4, it'll be just barely missing. Elliott is an established top five driver in the sport, and will be that way for a long time to come.

Bold Prediction: Elliott will lead over 700 laps in 2022

4. Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 2 wins, 19 top fives, 25 top tens, Championship 4

Interesting Stat: Hamlin set a career high in laps led in 2021 with 1502

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 7 wins, 20 top fives, 24 top tens, Championship 4

I don't see any reason for Hamlin to slow down at age 41. In another universe, he could've won 8 races in 2021. Hamlin should be primed to make at least one more run at a championship. The question is- will he make it count?

Bold Prediction- Hamlin will lead the series in top 2 finishes with 12

3. Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsports)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 4 wins, 8 top fives, 16 top tens, Round of 12

Interesting Stat: Bowman was arguably one of the best short track racers in Cup in 2021, scoring 2 wins and a 10.6 average finish in 5 starts

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 3 wins, 14 top fives, 21 top tens, Championship 4

Bowman had one inconsistent season, but his numbers mask how good he actually was- outside of DNFs, his average finish was a respectable 12th. With 2022 being based on the package Bowman excelled in last season, I think Bowman has a chance to take a step forward and become a truly elite racer in the Cup Series.

Bold Prediction: Bowman will win his way into the Final 4 from below the cutline.

2. Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 10 wins, 20 top fives, 26 top tens, Champion

Interesting Stat: Larson set the all time record for laps led in a 36 race season in 2021

2022 Prediction: 36 Starts, 3 wins, 20 top fives, 27 top tens, Championship 4

Larson put up a season for the ages in 2021, and while I don't expect him to one-up it in 2022, I don't see him slowing down. He's undisputedly the title favorite heading into the season, and he's adaptable enough to be hyper-aggressive in the Next Gen car and still make great long run time.

Bold Prediction- Larson loses the title in a photo finish

1. William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports)

2021 Stats: 36 Starts, 1 win, 12 top fives, 20 top tens, Round of 12

Interesting Stat: Byron is the youngest driver in NASCAR Cup history to score at least 10 straight top ten finishes

2022 Predictions: 36 Starts, 6 wins, 17 top fives, 24 top tens, Champion

This might be my craziest pick of all, but here me out. William Byron took a massive leap forward in 2021, scoring 12 top fives a season after it took him 25 races to get 1. I think Byron can make another giant step forward in 2022. Kyle Petty believes that Byron will be in Hendrick's Mount Rushmore, and while I don't think he's that good, he's absolutely a future champion, and I think it comes this year.

Bold Prediction- Byron will win the season-opening Daytona 500.