Haters Guide to the Chase for the Cup - Super 16

Oh, boy. It's that time of the year again where I have 16 drivers to proceed to remind me that yes, the post season is still a fucking joke. Anyway, it's time to meet the drivers that will "compete" for the championship. And by "compete", what I really mean is that only at best 8 drivers in this group can really be labeled as title contenders and the other half shouldn't even be here. Yet NASCAR decides to keep this damn joke of a format around because "MuH dRaMa" and for "game 7 moments." Failing to realize that game 7 moments are special because they seldom ever happen. On that note, let's meet the 16 drivers that are entering the 10 week gauntlet.

47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - And here is the yearly reminder to you all that the post season is a joke and it should not be a thing we have in NASCAR - Stenhouse Jr winning the Daytona 500 locks him into the post season. And honestly, he shouldn't have even won that. He only won because Daniel Suarez spun out with 2 laps to and that resulted in drivers throwing their brains into a blender and decided we needed not one, but TWO green white checkered attempts to finish the race and we STILL had a wreck on the last lap anyway! Want me to be completely honest? Stenhouse is the most forgettable Daytona 500 winner we've ever had. There were multiple points this year I had to be reminded that Stanhouse won the god damn commercial fest on Fox 500. That's how forgettable that he is. And the forgetableness doesn't even stop there. Since the Daytona 500, Stenhouse only has 1 more top 5 and 6 more top 10 finishes to his name. AND he's only led 25 more laps since then. it's been a whole lot of mid, forgetableness, and not being able to capitalize on positive momentum in the early season. Now they have one goal : Go farther here than they did in '14. Stenhouse certainly did that in '17, and JGT might be able to bank on that. But I hold no stock.

8 Kyle Busch - Now THIS is a team and driver I'm excited to talk about. Love him or hate him, Kyle Busch has to have earned your respect. After a rough final year at Joe Gibbs Racing, a change of scenery was needed and he decided to take his talents to Welcome, North Carolina and to the Richard Childress Racing 8 team. And he made it stick. A dominanting win in California backed up by 2 more wins he had to snooker out of his helmet at Talladega and Gateway mean he's BACK. But there is one problem : Kyle Busch has five DNFs this season, and those 5 DNFs will amount to trouble as they leave points on the table and can result in an early post season exit. Busch fans, you have a lot to be excited about as your driver will be marking his quest for a 3rd title. We have not had a 3 time champion since Tony Stewart in '11.

24 William Byron - William Byron has been raising hell the entire season and if you thought his 3 win season last year was his break out season? You were mistaken. This season has been a far cry better than what last year was. What, claiming 3 wins last year and having an Eliminator 8 apparence gift wrapped by the motorsports penalty appeals appearence wasn't sexy enough for you? Well, Byron would take that performance last year and back it up with a 5 win season. Las Vegas and Phoenix in back to back fashion, Darlington, Atlanta's summer night race, and then Watkins Glen. The big noggin cap in tow, Byron now sets his sights on finishing what he started this season : winning the championship. We are FINALLY seeing the all-star legend we were promised. It may have taken 6 years for this to finally happen, but Byron is proving to us all that he is capable and worthy of being called a Cup Series champion. A record setting 15th championship for the HMS orginazation is on the line, and Byron proved he will do whatever it takes to get it.

22 Joey Logano - Joey Logano, I will have to reintroduce you to NASCAR New Game+ : Title Defense mode. In this mode, you have the crown. And everyone is going after you. The GOOD news is you did win at Atlanta and have affirmed your spot in the post season. The bad news is you have looked the exact same way you did in 2019 after you won your first title the year prior : like a fraud. What, you want me to tell your fans to be comforted by the fact you won at Atlanta in the spring, leading 140 laps in the process? Let me remind you all that Logano's 140 lap race at Atlanta was the outliar as he's only lead 125 more laps outside of that race for the entntire season. You've been uninspiring all year and you expect me to believe that THIS 22 team is going back to back? Sure, you may be the best Penske driver, but that's not saying much considering your in house competition is Ryan Blaney who's only won 1 race in the last 2 years and has done fuck all since winning the 600, and Austin Cindric who has done jack shit since winning the Daytona 500 last year aside from being a first round exit in a car Brad Keselowski took to the eliminator 8 the year prior. I expect nothing from Logano. And then I will somehow still be let down because the fraud will find his way to the Eliminator 8 somehow.

45 Tyler Reddick - I can still hear Richard Childress seething under his breath that Tyler Reddick screwed his team's rebuild over. It was going along perfectly, a 2 win season headed out of the Indy Motor Speedway. The one time they finally have a talented driver in the 8 car, Reddick decides to fuck off and announce he is headed to 23XI for the '24 season. And then came the Kurt Busch announcement that fucked everything up. How does Childress respond? Buys Reddick out of his current contract and is told to hit the road to 23XI a year earlier than planned. As a parting gift to Childress, Reddick scores one more win in Texas. Now with a brand new scene AND a new car make AND a new teammate, you'd think Reddick would struggle. This the part where Reddick takes that personally and made everyone shut the fuck up with 2 more wins, with Kansas being the more memorable win as Kurt Busch was in the booth calling the 45, the car he drove last year, to the win. At the same track Kurt Busch won his last Cup race at. A highly underrated moment that doesn't get talked about. Reddick has been bad fast everywhere he has gone and shows no signs of stopping as he is a runaway freight train. The only thing that might stop him? 23XI pit crews. We'll see how the 45 team does.

5 Kyle Larson - It's never easy being a fan of Kyle Larson. With this new car, Larson has been the epidimey of being a checkers or wreckers driver. With 3 wins last year but a Turbo 12 exit followed up by 2 wins this year at Richmond and Martinsville, you'd think there'd be some comfort. That's where you're wrong. For every time there's a fantastic race, it gets followed up by a wreck. And don't even get me STARTED on super speedways. As much as I'm a fan of the super speedways when I put driver bias aside, I absolutely despise the super speedways as a Larson fan. Yes, Larson CAN in fact run in the top 5 and 10 in a super speedway race as we saw in Daytona... that was before the 14 car melee he got swept up into. Fortunately for us Larson fans (and unfortunately for everyone else), Talladega isn't in the first round and Larson does really well at Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol. If you want me to be honest? I'm expecting yet another 2nd round exit for Kyle Larson this year. I will be estactic if he proves me wrong.

20 Christopher Bell - In my haste to make sure everything was all set and good to go, I totally blanked and forgot to talk about Christopher Bell. So let's give you the scoop on Christopher Bell here : 1 win on the Bristol dirt to be added to his not so red hot season. But don't worry, Bell fans. There is much comfort to he had. Bell is WAY too damn good of a driver to be knocked out of the first round. 6 top 5s and 13 top 10s with 259 laps led should be enough to provide some comfort. That not enough for you? Do you how clucth Bell was when he needed to be? Needed to win at the Roval to advance to the Eliminator 8. Did the job. Needed to win at Martinsville to advance to the Championship 4. Do I even need to tell you he did it? He finished 3rd in points last year and anything short of the Eliminator 8 should be deemed a failure in his eyes. Not only that, Bell is easily my favorite Toyota driver, so I do have some bias with saying that Bell is due for another deep run.

19 Martin Truex Jr - Guys, I have an announcement to make : Truex is back and he is back with avengance on his mind. After last year's Daytona summer race proved to us all yet AGAIN the post season format is a complete disaster that never should've been implemented, Truex decided the best way to correct this is to make sure nobody doubts he is one of the best to drive a NASCAR sanctioned stock car. With reitirment being iminent, the only way Truex wants to go out is on top, so he can have 3 win season. 2 of wich were Monday races. And damn near had a 4th one had Buescher not stolen it from him in a total barnbuner of a Michigan finish. We shall now await the inevitable retirement announcment. Never mind, retirement talks will be put on hold as it was confirmed there will be at least one more year. By the way, since Denny Hamlin choked away the regular season crown with a pit road penalty and THEN got swept up in a 14 car melee at Daytona. By default at the end of the 2nd segment, YOU will be the top driver on the 16 man grid. Good luck.

11 Denny Hamlin - I'm going to let you all in on a little secret : Denny Hamlin is NOT going to win the title. He can get the fuck out of my sight. You have done NOTHING that proves to me you have what it takes to win the crown. I keep looking at 2010 where you spun out on lap 24 and literally handed Johnson his 5th title on a silver platter. Hell, the 2010 choke job can be traced back to the week prior! You had it locked up, you had your foot on the throat with a dominanting performance in Pheonix. What does the 11 team do? Proceed to fuck up the fuel strategy and it puts Johnson 15 points back headed into Homestead! I look back at 2014 where you stayed out with 7 laps to go because you had no fresh tires. I go back to 2017 where you had a spot in Homestead with your name on it and you decided to piss the bed and wreck Chase Elliott in Martinsville and you found out how bad of an idea that was 2 weeks later in Pheonix. I go back to 2019 where your team decided that covering the entire grill in tape was a brilliant idea. I can also add 2020 with your ABSOLUTE BEST CHANCE to win the title because this system is a joke and Harvick got eliminated the week prior and one of the greatest seasons we's ever seen ruined because the system is bullshit and you do what with it? COMPLETELY SHIT THE BED AND BRING THE WORST CAR OF THE 4 TITLE CONTENDERS! You lost to Chase Elliott who had only been racing full time in Cup FOR FIVE SEASONS UP TO THAT POINT! But wait, because there's 2021 where it was a rerun of 2020 where you brought a shit box car and did fuck all with your chance to win the crown! I'm sorry, am I pissing off the Hamlin fans for the reminder of all the failures of the past? Good, because now I'm gonna twist the knife even more : Last year, Hamlin had his fued with Ross Chastian. Chastain got the last laugh and advanced to the finale by 2 points. How did he do it? Oh, by only putting down one of THE GREATEST MOMENTS IN NASCAR HISTORY as he Hauled Melon around the Martinsville Speedway outside barrier, thus forcing NASCAR to make it a time penalty if dirvers did it again. Did I mention prior to this bad ass move by Ross Chastain, Hamlin was TWO POINTS to the good on making the Championship? This year, Hamlin has decided it would be a brilliant idea to put Larson in the wall at Pocono and then DOUBLED DOWN on his move and acted like he was in the right. Hamlin a legacy of failure and every year just further adds to it. And I cannot wait for this 11 team to choke again. It's good for business.

12 Ryan Blaney - Ryan Blaney had a long ass 58 race winless drought headed into the Coca-Cola 600. The rain delayed it to Monday. How did Blaney respond? Oh, by only putting down his BEST drives we have ever seen from him in his career as hauled ass to take the win and end his drought. What did he do afterwards? Proceed to go into freefall and show no signs of stopping the fall. Let me be perfectly clear about this : Blaney fans, this is your version of hell. Blaney can showcase his talent all he wants, but he is super inconsistent as all fuck. Don't believe me? Blaney's best showing in the Chase for the Cup has been a 3rd round appearance in '17, '18, and '19. His worst was a first round exit in '20 and '22 and it's not hard to see why. The first 3 tracks since the '20 schedule shake up have been the kryptonite of Blaney. Even when Blaney got out of the first round in '21, he did that IN SPITE of having a terrible first round. My point? Set your expectations low. It will spare you from the inevitable disappointment.

1 Ross Chastain - Ross Chastain last year was known for making story lines like the Haul the Wall. The hail melon, if you will. This year was NOT what he was expecting. But it's all good. He won at Nashville! That's a sure fire sign things are on the up and up. Let me just say this : whatever happened in those discussions following the Darlington race have ruined any swagger the 1 driver had. He went from being the story line maker to just your average driver in a hurry, with Nashville being the outliar. He needs to find his lost mojo and he needs to find it fast. If he doesn't? You're looking at a 1st or 2nd round exit. By the way, Chastain also finished 2nd in points last year. That means he is under the 2nd place curse. Good luck trying to beat that.

17 Chris Buescher - I know 2 questions that the "casual" fans that NASCAR keeps chasing will have : the first question is who the fuck is this Chris Beuscher guy and the second question is why the fuck is he in the post season. He won at Richmond in late July. Simple as that. Even if he didn't win at Richmond, he was WAY above the cutline by a solid 110+ points. At best? The 17 team is at least a 1st round elimination. But we all know that. What more do you want me to say about this 17 car? What's that, he won again at Michigan and THEN won a 3rd time Daytona in race 26 for his first ever hat trick?! I want to remind to you all that Buescher HAS been in the post season before in 2016 when he was with Front Row because of his first win at Pocono where he fluked his way into the win because of a fog bank that rolled in and called the race early. As you'd expect, he was in a 34 Front Row Motorsports car that was not up to par with everyone else and was EASILY a first round exit. This year? I'm fully expecting him to make a decent run at the crown.

4 Kevin Harvick - Happy Harvick? Yeah right. When you've been carrying a team on your back all by yourself since Kurt Busch left at the end of 2018, you'd be feeling miserable too. And Havrick has a lot to be unhappy about. To the point where he announced his retirement. Okay, too far into the joke, let's get serious about this : while yes, Harvick has carried the Stewart Haas Racing team to relevance time and time again, you have to understand Harvick is getting up there in age. He's in his mid 40s and this is usually the point where drivers start seeing a decline in their performance. Father time remains unbeaten no matter who decides they want to try and rewind it just to keep their top level performance. By the way, has it been mentioned that Harvick has a family? Has it been mentioned Harvick has driven race cars since THE '90S? Has it been mentioned Harvick has been racing Cup cars for 22 years? We'll see Harvick in the hall of fame come the class of '26 or '27. But as for the here and now? Harvick is a legend of NASCAR with many accolades to his name. At worst? He is a semifinalist that comes up short in the Eliminator 8. At best? He's hoisting one final crown. It is now make or break. Josh Berry is waiting in the wings.

6 Brad Keselowski - Wait, what?! Brad Keselowski made it back to the post season for the first time in 2 years? AND he did it without a win this season?! Well, I'll be dammed. Say what you want about Keselowski, but one thing cannot be denied : he is a generational talent of driving stock cars and one of the best to do it. Walking away from Penske, we all doubted this move to Roush Fenway was the best choice in his career. '22 merely reinforced that thinking. This year? Different story. Staying 100+ points above the cut line, racking up top 5s and 10s like it's nobody's business, AND locking up a spot after Watkins Glen made us all realize we jumped the gun on the move too soon. Now there are only 2 goals for the RFK team : get the 6 back to Victory Lane and get both 17 and 6 into the championship 4 at Phoenix. I await to see how they do.

23 Bubba Wallace - CONGRATULATIONS, 23XI! Your main driver you've been building around in Darrell "Bubba" Wallace Jr has FINALLY made the post season! Even better, after 3 years of operation, you managed to put not just one car, but BOTH of your cars in. Wallace had to point his way in and it looked like Ty Gibbs was gonna beat him. Unfortunately for Ty Gibbs, the caution that ended segment 2 happened. And he was swept up into it. And it ended the 54 team' s night AND their post season hopes, and Wallace did what he needed to do to point his way in. Now comes the part Wallace has never done before : make it out of the first round, with little to no bonus points in hand? I hate to say it, but you're gonna be a one and done driver. The unneeded cannon fodder that gets sacraficed early.

Wether or not you have any post season experience means absolutely nothing in NASCAR, especially when you look at how last year's 10 race post season race went. A driver who has never been here before can go deep and a driver who's been here multiple times can get eliminated early. With that being said, here are my 4 drivers getting eliminated in this round. Now watch all 4 of these age like milk.

12 Ryan Blaney - I'm gonna be blunt with you all : even though Ryan Blaney had a convincing win in Charlotte, he has been in free fall ever since that win. But that alone isn't enough to warrant Blaney getting the death nail in his post season. Take a look at the 3 tracks ahead of him in this round : Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol. What do they all have in common? They're all tracks Blaney has been historically bad at. Since the 2020 schedule shake up that was announced on the back end of '19, Blaney has only made it out of the first round once back in '21. He had three wins to lean on to help bail him out that year. If this was the original three race slate from '19, hell even the '16 slate of races? Blaney makes it out and goes to the 2nd round at worst and makes the 3rd round at best.

23 Bubba Wallace - limping into the post season isn't the best way to get it started. Ask Ryan Blaney how well that worked out for him last year. With the lack of bonus points that other drivers have at their disposal, and given what we've been hearing about the pit crew woes at 23XI AND the rumors of 23XI switching to Ford as early as '25, I would be shocked if Wallace somehow makes it out of the first round in convincing fashion because let's face it, this team is in uncharted waters. And if the pit crew fails again? It'll only prove me right. I would love to see Wallace go deep, but 23XI lives and dies on pit road. It only takes one mistake in the pits or on the track to end a post season hunt. And I expect Wallace and company to buckle under the pressure.

34 Michael McDowell - Oh, you really think the 34 is gonna make it out if this round? Here's a cold smack back to reality : McDowell and this 34 team were here back in '21 after the Daytona 500 win and it ended the same way I expect to end this year : first round elimination. This isn't me going against McDowell, but looking at the team he races for : Front Row Motorsports. This team is usually treated as cannon fodder for the top level teams like Hendrick, Trackhouse, Penske, Roush Fenway, Joe Gibbs, 23XI, and that list goes on and on. What newer fans fail to relaize is this is the 3rd trip to the post season the 34 car has made into the post season for the first time in '16 with Chris Beuscher. It ended in a first round exit. What makes everyone think McDowell is gonna get out of the first round is beyond me, but I can just tell you he isn't gonna make it out.

47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Stenhouse Jr and company, welcome to hell. You knew the Daytona 500 was your golden ticket into the post season, didn't ya? It is the sword that will also that be used to slay you. I say that because I have bad news for you : take a look at the last 2 Daytona 500 champions in Michael McDowell and Austin Cindric. What do they have in common aside from racing Fords? They both failed to make it out of the first round and their season AFTER winning the 500 were abaolutely dog shit. Cindric winning top rookie honors of '22 by default in the process. You won the Daytona 500. I'm supposed to be comforted by the fact you expect it help you make it out of the 1st round? You might want to look again. I have way more faith in Chase Elliott and the 9 team pulling an upset win out of their asses than I do in the 47 team getting out of the first round. ESPECIALLY with 12 other drivers in the post season who have at least one win AND two very determined drivers in Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick.