The Rule of Three

As more and more veteran quarterbacks are on the decline, an increasing amount of young quarterbacks are taking their spot in the league. Each one has had their own level of success. Some, like Patrick Mahomes, have lit the NFL up, while guys like Josh Rosen haven't gotten their shot with a franchise. So how exactly should we evaluate these guys? When I say that, I don't mean just skills wise. When I say this, I mean comparing their skills with their age.

I have come up with an idea. I call it the Rule of Three. This concept says that in their third year, the quarterback must be able to show he can hold his own in the NFL. By their third season, you lose the new guy . You are no longer allowed to miss wide open throws and simple reads. Their third season is the season to grow up and mature. Now, I will further explain this concept.

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Processing & Intelligence

The biggest part to a quarterback's play is their intelligence of the game. It doesn't matter how talented one is if he doesn't know where to go. Everybody in the NFL has a lot talent, it's a matter of perfecting and polishing that talent. Since this is the biggest part of progressing as a quarterback, I have broken it down into different sections.

Pre-Snap Recognition

Coming into the NFL fresh out of college, you will have very little idea compared to others, how to read disguise coverages. They truly don't know what to do when they see a defensive back roll into a different coverage. In fact, they're confused. Then, the play starts, and they have no clue what they're looking at. They don't have a true plan to attack the coverage. I don't mean to down talk college players, but they generally don't face as many disguise coverages in college.

With a couple years and some bad looking interceptions, they should eventually learn specific looks. Whenever they see a safety roll back into a deep zone from the box, they may know what's coming and how to attack it. Instead of going into panic mode, they wait and take their shot at the defense. Whether it would be knowing where the open man is or taking advantage of a one on one matchup, they will be in a much better position to make a play. This is important to being a quarterback. If by year three, the player still can't recognize plays consistently, then the team is in trouble.

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Audibles

Along with the actual pre-snap recognition, comes the audibles. Now, audibles are important because if you're in a play that is not good against the defense your facing, you can change the play. There are many ways to do this. You can change protection. This could be used to counter a potential blitz coming. Another possibility is that the quarterback changes a route to beat the coverage. For example, if he sees a cover 0, he may change a receiver's route to a slant. Finally, a quarterback that has gained experience under a system should be allowed to change plays. All the good quarterbacks in the league can do it. If the defense shows cover 3, the quarterback may change it to a more favorable play.

In college, the players don't do much audibling themselves. The coaches or players may see a certain coverage or blitz and want to change the play. However, the quarterback doesn't audible. The coaches on the sideline have that responsibility. The players, including the quarterback, look to the coaches to see what the play is. In the NFL, you will be required to audible into your own play. This means you will need to study the playbook into detail. This is why it will probably take a couple years for a quarterback to really click. This is not something straight out of day one in the NFL. This is gained with development.

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Decision Making & Progressions

A big problem with rookies is that they tend to lock on to their primary read for far too long. Rookies don't understand when to come off the primary read. Defenses will feast on the ing game. They will play zone and read the eyes of the quarterback. As the defender plays the eyes, it becomes an easy interception.

An example of improvement is how a quarterback uses his eyes. Something seen amongst veterans is looking off defenders. An older player may look to one side of the field before turning back and throwing it to the other side of the field. The mentioned technique is used to move the defender away from where the er actually wants to throw the ball.

Another very important thing included in decision making is knowing when to take risks and when to take it easy. In some cases, it might be very tight coverage, so forcing a pinpoint accurate may be the right thing to do. A big factor into this is what the situation is. You have to stay aware of the situation at hand. I will give an example. It is third & medium in a do or die situation, coverage downfield is as good as can be. However, the defense leaves the flat route completely uncovered. The smart choice would be to go to the flats, as there is still another down to work with even if you don't pick up the first down. Make sure that the quarterback doesn't do dumb things like throwing the ball across the field. Simple mistakes like that can turn into chaos in the NFL. Although a quarterback shouldn't be making bone headed decisions like mentioned above, it is okay when they throw it right into coverage. The most important thing to look for is that they're learning from their mistakes.

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Pocket Awareness/ Sensing Pressure

A very underrated aspect of playing quarterback is pocket presence. Knowing when to step up, or roll out is a important as can be. It is also helpful to have the internal clock that tells you when the ball needs to be released.

In most young quarterbacks, there is some sort of problem with their pocket awareness. It may be that they hold the ball for too long, or they try to roll out into areas that have defenders. However, there is one thing consistent among all of them. All of them hate small pockets. A big reason teams blitz young quarterbacks is because the coaches know that rookies hate small pockets. In a small pocket, they get uncomfortable with such little space. As a result, the player will try to run out of that pocket and end up running into a sack. This is natural, as people generally do not like small and compact areas. However, some guys may not have any awareness at all. Some players are oblivious to pressure. For them, it can be good or bad. With a collapsing pocket, that could either result in a great throw under pressure, or it could be a strip sack.

I will throw pocket presence and awareness of pressure into the same category. A quarterback must know when the ball has to be out. We see it with many quarterbacks. Whenever great quarterbacks play against teams with a good rush, they almost always have an internal clock, getting the ball out instantly, not allowing the pressure to arrive. Additionally, there is something we call playing hero. This happens when a quarterback is scrambling and is trying to do too much and turns a 5 yard sack into a 15 yard sack. Them trying to make some magic happen ultimately results in a major loss of yardage. This happens with a lot of young, mobile quarterbacks. Hell, it even happens to Russell Wilson from time to time. Like all other traits mentioned, it can be fixed over a period of time.

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Chemistry

Quite possibly the most important thing to develop after intelligence, is chemistry. Chemistry between a quarterback and his teammates, more importantly, his receivers, can help separate a good quarterback from one team and a good quarterback from another. If one has spent more time with a particular receiver, he will know how fast he runs the routes and where he will be when the ball releases. This familiarity will make it much easier to know where to throw the football. If two have good chemistry, then timing routes will be that much easier. A new receiver, maybe one on the slower side, may have a slant route thrown behind him if the er is used to quicker and faster receivers. On the flip side, if there is a fast receiver running downfield, the ball may be underthrown for the receiver. Along with this, if both players know where the other is going with the ball, it is completely unstoppable.

Another positive to chemistry is the trust between the er and receiver. If a quarterback can trust a receiver to beat a one on one matchup, it will make beating blitzes much easier. If a defense shows man to man, a quarterback can trust that he can just throw it up and the receiver will come down with it.

Sometimes, though, instead of throwing it up, the quarterback can master the art of the back shoulder throw. It is exactly as it sounds. The quarterback will throw it to the back shoulder of the receiver. This ball is usually thrown when a receiver is downfield on a fade or go route. The back shoulder is the shoulder that is facing away from the quarterback. If it is thrown accurately, it will be almost impossible to defend against. If the receiver is able to come down with the catch, then why wouldn't the quarterback look back to him for the same throw later? The only real way to defend a perfect back shoulder throw is if you see it coming and prepare for that exact throw. If the defender is covering the back shoulder, it will leave him exposed downfield unless there is double coverage. Unless a quarterback gets to play with his college teammate, chances are, there will be no immediate connections.

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Big Time Throws

In the NFL, a quarterback's accuracy will truly be tested. In college, the receivers are very open compared to the NFL. Whilst in the pros, the windows to throw are much tighter. If a isn't thrown right, defenders will make you pay for it. If a guy is open, he won't be open for long. You better make a decision in that moment. Either play it aggressive and wait for something downfield, or let it go underneath. If the quarterback gets lazy with his throws, he will be punished. Even if it is cover 2 with a post, if you lazily lob the ball over the middle, it will get picked off. It needs to be an absolute dart to the opening in the deep middle, right over the linebacker's head.

Also, making deep throws will be an important part of a quarterback's tool kit. Although throwing deep doesn't happen often, it matters quite a bit. If there is a bust in coverage downfield, you better not miss it. If those throws are missed, that is how someone is booted out of the league. More importantly, throws up the seam and into extremely small windows is where the greats make their money. A good quarterback should be able to make those throws. Of course, it won't be every time, since those are very tough throws to make, but it should be on point for some of the throws. If this isn't mastered, the chances of becoming a good quarterback shoot way down.

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The League's Adjustments

There is a reason people say that the NFL stands for Not For Long. This league is built of the most talented and skilled football players in the world. The NFL chews up and spits out talented players. This is due to the fact that after the rookie year, coaching staffs have a full offseason to find the weaknesses of a player. They will make adjustments and try their best to expose those weaknesses. This is why there is something called the "sophomore slump." If the player is really good, they may not have a sophomore slump, and may continue their success. However, if the player regresses in the second year, it is no time to panic. On the flip side, if the rookie year is on par for rookies, all you look for is some development in year two.

Come year three, the quarterback has had a chance to adjust to the NFL's adjustment. This will be the prime time to show that he is the real deal. The time to determine if he is the next franchise quarterback. If he does alright, then watch closely in year four and depending on the results, the staff should determine if he deserves a contract extension or not. If he becomes a star, then he will likely be your franchise quarterback. If the quarterback struggles, though, it may be time to start searching for a new quarterback. If not, try your best to give him as much help as possible.

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Example of Application:

DeShaun Watson

DeShaun Watson is widely seen as one of the next great quarterbacks of the NFL. A strong armed and mobile quarterback who has shown that he can elevate a team. In his rookie season, prior to getting hurt, he was a primary candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. In his rookie year, he had 21 total touchdowns (19 ing, 2 rushing) prior to tearing his ACL. Things were looking up for Watson, as he looked like one of the most explosive players in the NFL during his rookie year. During his second year in the league, he had 31 total touchdowns. However, he was the most sacked quarterback in the league by a wide margin (62, next closest was 56). However, he was tied for first in the NFL for sacks caused by a quarterback with 15, along with Dak Prescott.

We are now almost done with his third year and he is about to sur his career high of 26 ing touchdowns this season. This season, he has taken 39 sacks compared to last year's 62. When I watched DeShaun Watson, I saw some good pocket presence for the most part. Most of the time he sensed when pressure came, he rolled away or stepped up accordingly. I also saw someone who was comfortable in the pocket, but was also comfortable outside of it as well. Also, how could one talk about DeShaun Watson without talking about two things: his aggressiveness and his elusiveness. He has that ability of many of the newer quarterbacks to get themselves out of trouble when defenders are trying to sack them. Watson is one of the best at this. Onto his aggressiveness, his decision making isn't the best, but it's him. He is absolutely fearless as a er. I saw him throw the ball downfield on multiple occasions. This can also be credited to his chemistry with his receivers.

Out of his three starting receivers, two of them have been there his whole career. This helps him make that chemistry with both Hopkins and Fuller strong. His trust in those two likely plays a big part in his aggressiveness while ing. It also helps with his audibles. In a very important fourth down situation against the Chiefs, I saw him and Hopkins attack cover 0 with a quick slant, which is exactly what you're supposed to do against cover 0. Even in a horrendous game against the Ravens, I saw a very nice back shoulder throw to Hopkins.

There were two Kenny Stills touchdowns against the Titans on perfectly thrown corner routes. I also saw an amazing throw in the clutch against the Saints in week 1. An absolute beauty to watch as a football fan; with pressure right there next to him, Watson throws it perfectly in stride for Kenny Stills to give the Texans the lead under 40 seconds left. Unfortunately, the Texans would still lose as the Saints would kick a game winning field goal. This was the complete definition of big time throw. In the clutch, with pressure, with perfect ball delivery.

All of this is done in year three, the year to truly start judging quarterbacks. Although Watson still has the same aggressiveness he had from college, he has matured in many ways. He has shown he can read defenses and change plays accordingly along with his receivers. For the most part, Watson and his receivers are on the same page. Some things just don't change though. I think Watson's aggressiveness is here to stay and that is probably going to look bad in of interceptions. This is not a bad thing though, after all, without that trait, he isn't truly DeShaun Watson.

#Silverbacks