Hot Takes.

Hi. I'm a guy.

You're about to think I'm a stupid guy, because today I'm going to be talking about some of my unpopular opinions.

No real correlation. Just things that I believe that you are allowed to agree or disagree with.

You might think this is a dumb idea for a blog, but there’s nobody else making them right now, so supply is low.

Though you’re probably right.

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HOT TAKE #1

The Colts are going to suck this year and finish last in the AFC South.

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This does not seem like *that* much of a stretch division-wise. Most people I see have them third or lower, with the Jaguars on top, the Titans in second, and the Texans in last place.

But when I look at the whole NFL, it seems like people put the Texans and Colts in two different categories. People say Houston is a contender for the #1 overall pick (which ironically, they would not have) while the Colts are simply “mediocre”.

I don’t buy that.

I think the best way to explain why is to show where they stand divisionally. The AFC South will not be good this year, so proving “the Colts will be last in the AFC South” by proxy would prove “the Colts will suck”.

Jacksonville Jaguars

No surprise here. The Colts were games behind the Jags last year, who won the division behind Trevor Lawrence, one of the league’s rising stars, and an overall solid roster. They have a franchise RB, a decent offensive cast, and solid defenders like Josh Allen, Travon Walker, Tyson Campbell, Foyesade Oluokun all led by a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson.

There’s a reason pretty much everyone sees them as repeat division winners this season.

Tennessee Titans

The Colts’ biggest problem is that they lack stability, and for all of the Titans’ problems, they have that in spades. Mike Vrabel isn’t the best, but is a competent coach and led the Titans to the #1 seed without Derrick Henry two years ago. Speaking of Henry, he will now have a rejuvenated offensive line with the addition of Peter Skoronski.

The case is made even stronger by the fact that Ryan Tannehill is, at minimum, better than Gardner Minshew, and will be throwing to DeAndre Hopkins as well. Even if Tannehill isn’t the starter, that could mean a younger guy like Willis or Levis was good enough to take the starting job from Tannehill, as they are not in a rush to start their young guys yet.

Houston Texans

This is the biggest question mark for most people. The Texans just had the #2 pick and are still far from contending. How will they NOT finish last?

Let’s compare and contrast.

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Offensively, I think the Texans are in better shape. CJ Stroud is in a far better situation and is way more prepared than Richardson, who had severe accuracy and turnover issues in college. Indianapolis does have better receivers, but Stroud still has a great offensive line behind Laremy Tunsil, a safety valve in Dalton Schultz, a young upstart receiver in Nico Collins, and returns John Metchie, who was a very underrated and reliable target at Alabama.

Even running back, one of Indy’s best position groups, isn’t a surmounting advantage. Jonathan Taylor’s in contract limbo and has requested a trade and Zack Moss suffered a broken arm in practice. Meanwhile, the Texans have a solid duo in Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce.

Defense is more even, with the Texans having a better secondary and edge-rushers with Indy having better linebackers and interior defensive linemen.

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What sways my opinion is the coaching staff. The Colts seem to be focusing on the development of Richardson by getting Shane Steichen. This is good in the long term, but in the short term, this development starts slow. See the Bills with Josh Allen and the Bears with Justin Fields.

The Texans, on the other hand, have a solid offensive coordinator hire in Bobby Slowik (former 49ers ing game coordinator) who is used to adapting to gelling new quarterbacks and weapons into his system. Head coach DeMeco Ryans was a former Texan linebacker and elite DC with the 49ers, who will complement and develop the team’s blossoming defenders.

Is it close? Yes. But in the end, I do not think that a developing Colts team led by Minshew or Richardson will beat out a Texans team that has added a lot of new star power led by Stroud and a variety of new, talented coaches.

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HOT TAKE #2

The notion of "QBU" or "quarterback schools" is stupid and almost nonexistent.

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With top-notch schools like Alabama, Ohio State, and Oklahoma churning out quarterbacks that get drafted early, people often bring the "Position U" conversation to the quarterback position.

I understand the concept and appeal. Other positions like "Wide Receiver U", "Defensive Back U", and "Offensive Lineman U" are typically easier to identify. Schools like Alabama, LSU, and Wisconsin respectively have produced tons of NFL talent at those positions.

Here's why it does not work for quarterback.

Reason 1: Pro Development is Often More Important

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Many players are what we would call "project players" coming out of college. For example, think of a guy like Zacch Pickens, a defensive tackle for the Bears. He was praised for his great athleticism and run-stopping ability, but was docked for his consistency and lack of production. He was drafted in the third round.

Let's assume that Pickens becomes an All-Pro. In that situation, do we really attribute his talent, coaching, and development to South Carolina, or to the Chicago Bears?

We can measure who is the most "pro-ready" out of college for a more accurate estimate, but pro readiness and talent are two different things. By that logic, Mac Jones was more pro-ready out of college than Josh Allen, but nobody would take Jones over Allen on the NFL level.

You could argue that this happens on any position, and you'd be right. But this happens more often with quarterback, mainly because...

Reason 2: Quarterback is a Unique Position

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I mean this in two ways.

Firstly, there's less of them. There are 32 starting QB jobs and that's that. Unlike positions like receiver, running back, or defensive line, nobody wants to be doing QB rotation or QB by committee (that is, unless you're Matt Rhule). The same rings true in college, so most schools are lucky to get a quarterback drafted every 5 or even 10 years.

Due to this, one really bad bust can botch your entire reputation even if your school is consistently producing NFL talent. This is most notably seen with AJ McCarron (Alabama) and Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State).

Secondly, quarterback is THE most important position on the field, meaning these "project players" are often first-round picks (EX: Josh Allen, Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson). This increases their risk of busting both because of their higher expectations and because the teams are more likely to draft a player they aren't ready to develop.

Since there is now a market for quarterbacks that are not pro ready, it's even harder to establish a "QBU" reputation, as many of the quarterbacks that do develop will not have developed at your school.

Finally, and to me, arguably the biggest reason...

Reason 3: NO school has produced consistent top-level talent.

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Let's look at some of the best quarterbacks in the early 2010s. I'll take the top 10 from this article by YardBarker.com:

Tom Brady: Michigan

Aaron Rodgers: Cal

Peyton Manning: Tennessee

Drew Brees: Purdue

Russell Wilson: Wisconsin

Matt Ryan: Boston College

Ben Roethlisberger: Miami of Ohio

Philip Rivers: North Carolina State

Andrew Luck: Stanford

Patrick Mahomes: Texas Tech

Not a single repeat on this list.

On top of that, several "what the heck" moments: Boston College? Cal? MIAMI OF OHIO?! When was the last time any of those schools produced a quality NFL quarterback outside of the three mentioned on this list?

I'm sure that's just a coincidence. Maybe if we look at more modern quarterbacks, like Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, we'll get a better estimate. Here's a list of the top 10 QBs entering 2023 by CBS Sports:

Patrick Mahomes: Texas Tech

Joe Burrow: LSU

Jalen Hurts: Oklahoma

Josh Allen: Wyoming

Justin Herbert: Oregon

Aaron Rodgers: Cal

Lamar Jackson: Louisville

Trevor Lawrence: Clemson

Dak Prescott: Mississippi State

Deshaun Watson: Clemson

What? Still nearly no repeats?

And the only school that did was Clemson, which not only had no QBs on the last list, but also many question Deshaun Watson's placement as a top 10 quarterback.

I understand that these are not perfect examples. But the fact is...

NO school is really "QBU" right now.

Don't praise a quarterback because they played at a good school or crap on a quarterback because "their school sucks". Last I checked, Texas Tech and Wyoming aren't exactly top tier programs, and Alabama and Ohio State have produced busts.

Just evaluate the talent. Not the school.

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HOT TAKE #3

Eli Apple, skillwise, is underrated.

There is a prevailing sentiment that Eli Apple is a rotten piece of crap that has no business being on the football field because he is a problem in the locker room and no good at football.

But what if I told you that only one of those is true?

Now, don’t get it twisted. I’m not suggesting that he is not a bust. Picking ELI APPLE at #10 overall when you could’ve had Xavien Howard or Laremy Tunsil is a big reason the Giants were so bad for so long.

I am also not suggesting that Eli Apple is a GREAT player, or that he is a solid starter.

My assertion is that Eli Apple is underrated skill-wise due to his poor reputation and off-the-field antics.

Here’s why.

Reason 1: "not a good starter" doesn't mean "not good".

Take a guy like Taylor Heinicke. He's currently slated to be the back-up quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons. Would you want a guy like him starting for your team? Absolutely not. But most would be pretty happy to see a guy like him listed as QB2.

The same goes for most other positions. The starters get all of the attention most of the year, but if the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers have proven anything last year, it's that you need DEPTH, not just talent.

Think of players like D'Onta Foreman, Tyler Huntley, Devin Singletary, or Andy Dalton. I certainly wouldn't want many of them being my BEST player at their position, but are they really BAD?

A good back-up is still a good player.

Reason 2: He has character concerns.

What? Isn’t that a bad thing?

Here’s the thing: EVERYONE KNOWS THIS. The coaches talking to him and the executives g him to their teams are aware that he’s a walking red flag.

So how is he still on an NFL roster?

Think about it: the Bengals signed Apple for him to be a back-up corner. Despite needing to step in for injured starters two years in a row and starting 31 out of 40 games he could have, the Bengals are consistent contenders and he put up modest stats in his two years with them (2 INTs, 18 PDs, pretty average PFF grade).

On top of that, while I do it that he's had some AWFUL games, a lot of that is because the Bengals are contenders and are playing elite receivers on a regular basis: think Cooper Kupp in the Super Bowl, Tyreek Hill on the Chiefs/Dolphins, Stefon Diggs on the Bills, et cetera.

Eli Apple is clearly not being signed to NFL rosters because he is a well-mannered, team-captain type of player that they want in their locker rooms.

As much as we hate it, Apple is getting signed

because he's talented enough to be wanted.

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Your cue to kill me is…

Now.